Having players like Chipper "Day to Day" Jones on my teams got me thinking-who are the players at each position who just can't seem to stay healthy? I bet you could come up with a pretty good lineup. I reviewed the cheatsheets on rotowire.com and created a lineup. I omitted pitchers (Chris Carpenter) because they are too numerous to mention(Ben Sheets):
1B-Nick Johnson-he's healthy and hitting .350, so I hope I don't jinx him. He is a very good hitter with, as rotowire describes him, "A gypsy curse on his head." Broke his leg in 2006 and missed all of 2007. His long awaited comeback was cut short last year after 109 at bats when he broke his wrist. Here's hoping 2009 is his lucky year! Honorable mention to Chad Tracy.
2B-Rickie Weeks-remember when he was a prized rookie in 2005 at age 22? Since then he's missed chunks of time for surgery to repair ligaments on his thumb and wrist, both in separate years. Already this year he collided with J.J. Hardy and suffered a concussion. Second base is one of the more durable positions, but Weeks makes the lineup here.
3B-Chipper Jones-I could list all of his assorted aches and pains causing him to miss time over the years, but I think there's a maximum number of characters I can type, so I'll leave that alone.
SS-Nomar Garciaparra-part of the holy trinity of AL shortstops, along with Jeter and ARod. These days, he literally can't run out a grounder with out something popping or pulling. I added him to one of my teams with Stephen Drew went on the DL and that actually happened the day after I picked him up!
C-Doumit-catcher is another position like second base where it was more difficult to find a worthy player. I finally settled on Doumit, who has had 7 of 9 seasons cut short by injuries between the majors and minors. Wait, he's out two months this season. make that 8/10.
OF-Milton Bradley-see Chipper Jones, then add a temper so scary that even when he's healthy he's often ejected and/or suspended. Actually tore his ACL one year in San Diego when his first base coach tried to restrain him during an argument.
OF-J.D. Drew-may even miss more time than Chipper, which is quite an accomplishment.
OF-Griffey-how many career home runs would he have right now if he didn't miss so much time? Still a sure-fire Hall of Famer.
Honorable mention to Jim Edmonds and Rondell White, both no longer active.
Showing posts with label Fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fantasy baseball. Show all posts
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Saturday, April 25, 2009
Diamonds In The Rough-Batters Update
Here's the latest update on hitters who are owned in 5% or less of Yahoo leagues. Three of my top ten from last week broke through the 5% barrier: A. Cabrera from Cleveland rocketed from 4% to 28%, Cody Ross increased to 9%, and Marlon Byrd barely crossed over at 6%. They join Nyjer Morgan, Bonifacio, Rolen, and John Baker from previous lists. That opens the door for three new players to add to my rankings. Here is my new top ten:
1.Alberto Callaspo-2B,SS-KC-2%-the injuries to Alex Gordon and Jose Guillen created an opening for him and he's ran with it, posting a line of 370/400/522. While 370 is a bit high, he has an excellent track record indicating that he's not a fluke. In AAA in 2006 he hit 337, then he returned with a 341 mark in 2007. Last year he finally got some major league playing time, batting 305 in over 200 AB's. Gordon is out for a while, so he should be the starter for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens when Gordon returns if he's still playiong near this level. I just took a chance on him in my Yahoo keeper league and picked him up, dropping Nate Schierholz. I can always use a backup for Howie Kendrick at least! He's new to the list, although he was showing as a player to watch. I've had my eye on him for years. He's one of those players who for some reason has never had much of an opportunity to play despite obvious talent and I've literally ahd my eye on him for years.
2.Luis Castillo-2B-NYM-5%-he must have fallen slightly to 5% to qualify for the list, so he's a new addition also. I realize he's not an unknown player, but he's unowned in 95% of Yahoo leagues. He is underrated right now, probably due to a poor 2008 campaign. However, he's normally a 290-300 hitter, starts for the Mets, plays a thin position, and still has speed. He lost weight over the offseason and it appears to be paying off as evidenced by his 381/435/476 year so far. That's getting it done!
3.Nick Johnson-4%-not many runs and rbi opportunities playing for the punchless Nationals, but you can't argue with a 370/433/463 mark, including a home run yesterday off Johan Santana. He actually has a shot to win the batting title.
4.Cuddyer-2%-I love Cuddyer and the Twins are still starting him every day despite a poor start. One thing I've noticed about well-run organizations like Minnesota is they don't panic when a player with a proven track record like Cuddyer gets off to a slow start. When you've played well over your last 1000-1500 AB's, the good teams usually give a guy the benefit of the doubt if he's slow out of the gate, while other teams would start benching that same player after 40 at bats!
5.Tracy-3%-has a decent line of 267/286/444 and should improve. Batting in the middle of the lineup is always a nice bonus too.
6.Andy LaRoche-1%-talk about your slow starts-he was hitting 000 as of April 15th! Maybe he was stressed out about his taxes. He is now in the midst of an 8 game hitting streak where he's gone 10-28 with 5 rbi and 3 BB, boosting his average to 227. He has the talent and is surging, so the window of opportunity to acquire him on the cheap may soon close.
7.Francisco-2%-the key here is still his playing-time, which has been more sporadic lately due to his slow start. Over his past six games he's 7-21 with 4 doubles, 7 runs, and 3 BB. Hopefully he earns back the playing time that he deserves.
8.Ishikawa-2%-in a similar boat to Francisco. The small silver lining is he's 3-7 with 2 runs and 2 rbi in his past two starts. If he receives the time, he will produce.
9.Thurston-2%-he continues to play well, as his 308/386/487 season will attest. He doesn't play every day or else he would rank higher, but going 2-7 with a double, triple, 2 runs and 3 rbi in the past two games will earn you more starts.
10.Melky Cabrera-OF-NYY-3%-the third player new to this week's list. I'm not a huge fan of Cabrera, but there are some things to like. In 2006 he finished at 283/362/393 for the Yankees, then he produced a 273/327/391 line in 2007. Both are decent and showed potential since he was very young and playing in the New York spotlight, which may have contributed to his weak 2008 season. At the age of 24, he still has room to grow and has started the past two games in a good Yankee lineup. He already has 4 HR's in 23 AB's. It's not every week where a Yankee shows up on this list! If he continues to start he could prov to be a nice bargain.
Others to watch: Prado-1% (368/455/632 but Chiper's back), Rasmus-4%, Scott Hairston-5%, Brandon Wood-3% (needs more than one AB), Nomar-2% (he's back....for now), and Keppinger-1%.
Here is an updates chart showing players from previous weeks:
1.Alberto Callaspo-2B,SS-KC-2%-the injuries to Alex Gordon and Jose Guillen created an opening for him and he's ran with it, posting a line of 370/400/522. While 370 is a bit high, he has an excellent track record indicating that he's not a fluke. In AAA in 2006 he hit 337, then he returned with a 341 mark in 2007. Last year he finally got some major league playing time, batting 305 in over 200 AB's. Gordon is out for a while, so he should be the starter for a while. It will be interesting to see what happens when Gordon returns if he's still playiong near this level. I just took a chance on him in my Yahoo keeper league and picked him up, dropping Nate Schierholz. I can always use a backup for Howie Kendrick at least! He's new to the list, although he was showing as a player to watch. I've had my eye on him for years. He's one of those players who for some reason has never had much of an opportunity to play despite obvious talent and I've literally ahd my eye on him for years.
2.Luis Castillo-2B-NYM-5%-he must have fallen slightly to 5% to qualify for the list, so he's a new addition also. I realize he's not an unknown player, but he's unowned in 95% of Yahoo leagues. He is underrated right now, probably due to a poor 2008 campaign. However, he's normally a 290-300 hitter, starts for the Mets, plays a thin position, and still has speed. He lost weight over the offseason and it appears to be paying off as evidenced by his 381/435/476 year so far. That's getting it done!
3.Nick Johnson-4%-not many runs and rbi opportunities playing for the punchless Nationals, but you can't argue with a 370/433/463 mark, including a home run yesterday off Johan Santana. He actually has a shot to win the batting title.
4.Cuddyer-2%-I love Cuddyer and the Twins are still starting him every day despite a poor start. One thing I've noticed about well-run organizations like Minnesota is they don't panic when a player with a proven track record like Cuddyer gets off to a slow start. When you've played well over your last 1000-1500 AB's, the good teams usually give a guy the benefit of the doubt if he's slow out of the gate, while other teams would start benching that same player after 40 at bats!
5.Tracy-3%-has a decent line of 267/286/444 and should improve. Batting in the middle of the lineup is always a nice bonus too.
6.Andy LaRoche-1%-talk about your slow starts-he was hitting 000 as of April 15th! Maybe he was stressed out about his taxes. He is now in the midst of an 8 game hitting streak where he's gone 10-28 with 5 rbi and 3 BB, boosting his average to 227. He has the talent and is surging, so the window of opportunity to acquire him on the cheap may soon close.
7.Francisco-2%-the key here is still his playing-time, which has been more sporadic lately due to his slow start. Over his past six games he's 7-21 with 4 doubles, 7 runs, and 3 BB. Hopefully he earns back the playing time that he deserves.
8.Ishikawa-2%-in a similar boat to Francisco. The small silver lining is he's 3-7 with 2 runs and 2 rbi in his past two starts. If he receives the time, he will produce.
9.Thurston-2%-he continues to play well, as his 308/386/487 season will attest. He doesn't play every day or else he would rank higher, but going 2-7 with a double, triple, 2 runs and 3 rbi in the past two games will earn you more starts.
10.Melky Cabrera-OF-NYY-3%-the third player new to this week's list. I'm not a huge fan of Cabrera, but there are some things to like. In 2006 he finished at 283/362/393 for the Yankees, then he produced a 273/327/391 line in 2007. Both are decent and showed potential since he was very young and playing in the New York spotlight, which may have contributed to his weak 2008 season. At the age of 24, he still has room to grow and has started the past two games in a good Yankee lineup. He already has 4 HR's in 23 AB's. It's not every week where a Yankee shows up on this list! If he continues to start he could prov to be a nice bargain.
Others to watch: Prado-1% (368/455/632 but Chiper's back), Rasmus-4%, Scott Hairston-5%, Brandon Wood-3% (needs more than one AB), Nomar-2% (he's back....for now), and Keppinger-1%.
Here is an updates chart showing players from previous weeks:
| 4-Apr | 11-Apr | 18-Apr | 25-Apr | |||
| Baker | C | Flor | 4 | 6 | 15 | 29 |
| Ishikawa | 1B | SF | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Johnson, Nick | 1B | Wash | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| Tracy | 1B | Ariz | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Prado | 1B,2B,3B | Atl | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Cabrera, A. | 2B,SS | Clev | 3 | 3 | 4 | 28 |
| Bonifiacio | 2B | Flor | 2 | 69 | 81 | 63 |
| Rolen | 3B | Tor | 4 | 11 | 31 | 29 |
| LaRoche, Andy | 3B | Pitt | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Wood | 3B, SS | Ana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Garciaparra | 1B,3B,SS | Oak | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
| Francisco | OF | Clev | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Fowler | OF | Col | 2 | 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Cuddyer | OF | Minn | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Morgan, N. | OF | Pitt | 5 | 28 | 37 | |
| Ross | OF | Flor | 5 | 4 | 9 | |
| Byrd | OF | Tex | 5 | 6 | ||
| Thurston | 3B,OF | SL | 2 | 2 | ||
| Callaspo | 2B,SS | KC | 2 | |||
| Castillo, Luis | 2B | NYM | 5 | |||
| Cabrera, Melky | OF | NYY | 3 |
Sunday, April 19, 2009
The Big Fly-Diamonds in the Rough-Pitchers
I haven't updated pitchers in a couple weeks. The list has changed significantly, so I will start updating them weekly like I do with the hitters. Rotation plans constantly change, not to mention closer roles. Also, as previously mentioned in other posts, pitchers are more difficult to predict. Hitters approach their expectations more consistently than pitchers as long as they're given a reasonable opportunity.
Three of the pitchers from my original list a couple weeks ago have crossed the 5% threshold:
Cahill-now at 8% and should really be much higher. He's still relatively unknown as a rookie pitching for Oakland, but he's living up to his excellent prospect status with a sparkling 2.60 ERA.
Perkins-16% now. A 1.69 ERA and .938 WHIP help you get noticed. Now if the Twins can just get him some wins...
Purcey-he's at 8% thanks to a wild performance at Cleveland where he struck out 10 batters in 4 2/3. Unfortunately, he also had six walks and allowed four runs. Still, the 10 K's are a testament to his potential.
Here are my current top 10 at 5% ownership and under:
1.Bucholz-has actually gone down from 5% to 3%, mainly because he's in the minors. He may have been in the rotation already, but he had some minor hamstring issues when Dice K got hurt, so the Sox are using Masterson for now. Awesome potential here.
2.Carrasco-Phil-1%-he should be in the Phils rotation at some point and also has a high ceiling like Bucholz. In AAA last year he had a 1.72 ERA with a 46/36.2 K/BB ratio. So far in 2009 he's even better at 1.50, 10/12, and a nifty .917 WHIP. If you have room to stash a player like him, it could reap huge rewards. Titles are won with moves like this.
3.Brett Anderson-Oak-5%-he tore up the minors, posting excellent K rates in the process, and is now in the Oakland rotation. He may be a little raw and thus far has a 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, and 7/13 K/IP ratio. The key is that he's already in the rotation. If he's available in your league, certainly he's better than Chan Ho Park or some other veteran on your roster. Grab him now.
4.Morales-Col-1%-he flashed his potential in the majors in 2007, then disappointed in 2008. He should get plenty of chances with the Rocks before the season is over. He already started once, going six innings, allowing only one ER with a .833 WHIP and 6 K's. In his AAA start he pitched six shutout innings. Buy low before the window closes.
5.Hampton-Hou-5%-he was an ace prior to years of injury problems. He's not a sure thing, but his line of 2.45 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, and 13/11 K ratio makes him worth the risk. My best guess is he'll post nice numbers in the first half. I'd then trade him around that point.
6.Nunez-Flor-has fallen from 5% to 3% since Lindstrom is healthy for now. Nunez is the real deal, as he showed last year in KC, and Lindstrom is not exactly etched in stone as the closer, plus he had shoulder isues this spring. Add it all together and he could pay off big time.
7.McDonald-LA-2%-like others above him, he has the pedigree and potential. He bagan the year in the rotation and is now hanging by a thread since Eric Stults has outpitched him. Still, it's a long season, so even if he fails the initial audition he'll still have time to right himself and earn another opportunity.
8.Stults-LA-4%-I remember not liking his track record when he came up last year and he pitched fine, with a 3.49 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, and 30/38.2 K rate. I'm still not sure what to think, but he's 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA, so I picked him up for two of my four teams.
9.Lannan-Wash-3%-pitched better in his last start, allowing one run in six innings vs. a good Marlin offense. Unfortunately, the Nationals don't have nearly as good an offense, so wins are hard to come by, even for the team's #1 starter. Hey, at least they're using Dukes now!
10.Hawkins-Hou-1%-I have a feeling something is wrong with Valverde and he's next in line. I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but if you have the roster space go ahead and take a shot, as the situation should resolve shortly.
Others to watch:
Marshall-5%, Andrew Miller-2%, Ohlendorf-1%, Gio Gonzalez-1%, Richmond-1%, Daniel Cabrera-1%, Pedro Martinez-1% (you can stop laughing now), Jo Jo Reyes-1%, Happ-1%, and Paulino-1% (I love 100 MPH fastballs).
Here's the chart of players appearing on the list so far this season:
By the way, feel free to email me at tim10966@hotmail.com or post comments here with any questions or comments. I'd be happy to hear from you. Good luck!
Three of the pitchers from my original list a couple weeks ago have crossed the 5% threshold:
Cahill-now at 8% and should really be much higher. He's still relatively unknown as a rookie pitching for Oakland, but he's living up to his excellent prospect status with a sparkling 2.60 ERA.
Perkins-16% now. A 1.69 ERA and .938 WHIP help you get noticed. Now if the Twins can just get him some wins...
Purcey-he's at 8% thanks to a wild performance at Cleveland where he struck out 10 batters in 4 2/3. Unfortunately, he also had six walks and allowed four runs. Still, the 10 K's are a testament to his potential.
Here are my current top 10 at 5% ownership and under:
1.Bucholz-has actually gone down from 5% to 3%, mainly because he's in the minors. He may have been in the rotation already, but he had some minor hamstring issues when Dice K got hurt, so the Sox are using Masterson for now. Awesome potential here.
2.Carrasco-Phil-1%-he should be in the Phils rotation at some point and also has a high ceiling like Bucholz. In AAA last year he had a 1.72 ERA with a 46/36.2 K/BB ratio. So far in 2009 he's even better at 1.50, 10/12, and a nifty .917 WHIP. If you have room to stash a player like him, it could reap huge rewards. Titles are won with moves like this.
3.Brett Anderson-Oak-5%-he tore up the minors, posting excellent K rates in the process, and is now in the Oakland rotation. He may be a little raw and thus far has a 4.85 ERA, 1.231 WHIP, and 7/13 K/IP ratio. The key is that he's already in the rotation. If he's available in your league, certainly he's better than Chan Ho Park or some other veteran on your roster. Grab him now.
4.Morales-Col-1%-he flashed his potential in the majors in 2007, then disappointed in 2008. He should get plenty of chances with the Rocks before the season is over. He already started once, going six innings, allowing only one ER with a .833 WHIP and 6 K's. In his AAA start he pitched six shutout innings. Buy low before the window closes.
5.Hampton-Hou-5%-he was an ace prior to years of injury problems. He's not a sure thing, but his line of 2.45 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, and 13/11 K ratio makes him worth the risk. My best guess is he'll post nice numbers in the first half. I'd then trade him around that point.
6.Nunez-Flor-has fallen from 5% to 3% since Lindstrom is healthy for now. Nunez is the real deal, as he showed last year in KC, and Lindstrom is not exactly etched in stone as the closer, plus he had shoulder isues this spring. Add it all together and he could pay off big time.
7.McDonald-LA-2%-like others above him, he has the pedigree and potential. He bagan the year in the rotation and is now hanging by a thread since Eric Stults has outpitched him. Still, it's a long season, so even if he fails the initial audition he'll still have time to right himself and earn another opportunity.
8.Stults-LA-4%-I remember not liking his track record when he came up last year and he pitched fine, with a 3.49 ERA, 1.319 WHIP, and 30/38.2 K rate. I'm still not sure what to think, but he's 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA, so I picked him up for two of my four teams.
9.Lannan-Wash-3%-pitched better in his last start, allowing one run in six innings vs. a good Marlin offense. Unfortunately, the Nationals don't have nearly as good an offense, so wins are hard to come by, even for the team's #1 starter. Hey, at least they're using Dukes now!
10.Hawkins-Hou-1%-I have a feeling something is wrong with Valverde and he's next in line. I could be wrong (wouldn't be the first time), but if you have the roster space go ahead and take a shot, as the situation should resolve shortly.
Others to watch:
Marshall-5%, Andrew Miller-2%, Ohlendorf-1%, Gio Gonzalez-1%, Richmond-1%, Daniel Cabrera-1%, Pedro Martinez-1% (you can stop laughing now), Jo Jo Reyes-1%, Happ-1%, and Paulino-1% (I love 100 MPH fastballs).
Here's the chart of players appearing on the list so far this season:
| 5-Apr | 18-Apr | ||
| Cahill | Oak | 3 | 8 |
| McDonald | LA | 2 | 2 |
| Bucholz | Bos | 5 | 3 |
| Perkins | Minn | 2 | 16 |
| Nunez | Flor | 5 | 3 |
| Lannan | Wash | 4 | 3 |
| Purcey | Tor | 2 | 8 |
| Andrew Miller | Flor | 2 | 2 |
| Pedro Martinez | FA | 2 | 1 |
| Bailey | Cinc | 1 | 1 |
| Rowland-Smith | Sea | 1 | 1 |
| Carrasco | Phil | 1 | |
| Brett Anderson | Oak | 5 | |
| Morales | Col | 1 | |
| Hampton | Hou | 5 | |
| Stults | LA | 4 | |
| Hawkins | Hou | 1 |
By the way, feel free to email me at tim10966@hotmail.com or post comments here with any questions or comments. I'd be happy to hear from you. Good luck!
Saturday, April 18, 2009
The Big Fly-Diamonds in the Rough Update
Two players broke through the 5% barrier and no longer qualify for the list: Nyjer Morgan shot up from 5% owned to 28% in one week, while heralded Rockie rookie Dexter Fowler is garnering more attention and rose from 3% to 7%.
Morgan is actually the 4th player from my lists who is now in double digits. The other three are Bonifacio at a whopping 81%, Rolen at 31%, and Baker at 15%. Of those players, I expect Baker to rise above 50% before too long since he's a quality player at a scarce position.
Here are the top ten:
1.Cuddyer-2%-he starts every day for an underrated Twins lineup and has three multi-hit games in his last five, bringing his season totals to 255/294/383. He can't remain this much of a secret for much longer.
2.Tracy-3%-the only knocks on him are interrelated. He starts about 70% of the time, probably to help keep him healthy because he's been so injury prone. A 321/323/536 mark helps even if he's not quite playing every day, especially batting in the middle of the lineup.
3.Nick Johnson-2%-all he does is hit. Since he hits for Washington, nobody else knows outside of Washington D.C. He's up to 355/412/419. If he maintains that pace, he'll be impossible to overlook even if he played on Mars.
4.A. Cabrera-4%-a second baseman hitting 290/421/387 with two SB's and seven runs would help most fantasy teams and he's still in the FA pool in 96% of leagues!
5.Francisco-2%-like many of his Cleveland teammates, he's off to a slow start, but he's showing sign of life, going 3-8 with two runs and an rbi over the past two games. He should remain an everyday player and his stats should continue to rise.
6.Cody Ross-4%-last week I said it's only "a matter of time before he heats up." He's earning more playing time and responded bu going 5-11 with 2 HR's, three runs, and 6 rbi in his past three games! Someone turned on the oven.
7.Byrd-OF-Tex-5%-new to the list. In over 400 AB's each of the past two seasons, his lines are excellent and consistent. In 2008 he finished at 298/380/462, with a 307/355/459 mark the year before. He's started the last two games and went 6-10 with a 2B, HR, two runs, and four rbi. Playing time is his main issue and that will definitely get your name on the lineup card. For the year he's at 393/393/750.
8.Thurston-3B/OF-SL-2%-he's playing often for the Cards, who always seem to rotate every layer not named Pujols. I had not heard of him before a couple weeks ago and his AAA numbers are very good: 300/367/425 and 16 SB's in 2007, then 316/367/456 and 19 SB's last year, so he's not a fluke. Right now he's at 357/419/500.
9.Ishikawa-3%-dropping in my rankings now due to playing time issues, as well as performance. Sometimes a player you know is good gets off to a slow start and the team starts benching him, leading to a downward spiral that can usually be avoided. He's at 200/200/280 for the season and, in his first start since 4/13 he went 0-3 with 3 K's. He'll be excellent if the Giants are patient with him, but I don't see that happening, so he better pick it up soon.
10.Andy LaRoche-hey, he's 2-6 in his last two, raising his average to 091 (that's not a typo). The Bucs are still being patient and he has the talent. Let's hope he breaks out soon.
Others to watch:
Rasmus-4%, Scott Hairston-2%, Juan Rivera-2%, Callaspo-1%, Seth Smith-1%, Moss-1%, Brandon Wood-1%, Keppinger-1%, Prado-0%, Garciaparra-3%.
Here is the chart showing how the top ten has fared thus far:
Morgan is actually the 4th player from my lists who is now in double digits. The other three are Bonifacio at a whopping 81%, Rolen at 31%, and Baker at 15%. Of those players, I expect Baker to rise above 50% before too long since he's a quality player at a scarce position.
Here are the top ten:
1.Cuddyer-2%-he starts every day for an underrated Twins lineup and has three multi-hit games in his last five, bringing his season totals to 255/294/383. He can't remain this much of a secret for much longer.
2.Tracy-3%-the only knocks on him are interrelated. He starts about 70% of the time, probably to help keep him healthy because he's been so injury prone. A 321/323/536 mark helps even if he's not quite playing every day, especially batting in the middle of the lineup.
3.Nick Johnson-2%-all he does is hit. Since he hits for Washington, nobody else knows outside of Washington D.C. He's up to 355/412/419. If he maintains that pace, he'll be impossible to overlook even if he played on Mars.
4.A. Cabrera-4%-a second baseman hitting 290/421/387 with two SB's and seven runs would help most fantasy teams and he's still in the FA pool in 96% of leagues!
5.Francisco-2%-like many of his Cleveland teammates, he's off to a slow start, but he's showing sign of life, going 3-8 with two runs and an rbi over the past two games. He should remain an everyday player and his stats should continue to rise.
6.Cody Ross-4%-last week I said it's only "a matter of time before he heats up." He's earning more playing time and responded bu going 5-11 with 2 HR's, three runs, and 6 rbi in his past three games! Someone turned on the oven.
7.Byrd-OF-Tex-5%-new to the list. In over 400 AB's each of the past two seasons, his lines are excellent and consistent. In 2008 he finished at 298/380/462, with a 307/355/459 mark the year before. He's started the last two games and went 6-10 with a 2B, HR, two runs, and four rbi. Playing time is his main issue and that will definitely get your name on the lineup card. For the year he's at 393/393/750.
8.Thurston-3B/OF-SL-2%-he's playing often for the Cards, who always seem to rotate every layer not named Pujols. I had not heard of him before a couple weeks ago and his AAA numbers are very good: 300/367/425 and 16 SB's in 2007, then 316/367/456 and 19 SB's last year, so he's not a fluke. Right now he's at 357/419/500.
9.Ishikawa-3%-dropping in my rankings now due to playing time issues, as well as performance. Sometimes a player you know is good gets off to a slow start and the team starts benching him, leading to a downward spiral that can usually be avoided. He's at 200/200/280 for the season and, in his first start since 4/13 he went 0-3 with 3 K's. He'll be excellent if the Giants are patient with him, but I don't see that happening, so he better pick it up soon.
10.Andy LaRoche-hey, he's 2-6 in his last two, raising his average to 091 (that's not a typo). The Bucs are still being patient and he has the talent. Let's hope he breaks out soon.
Others to watch:
Rasmus-4%, Scott Hairston-2%, Juan Rivera-2%, Callaspo-1%, Seth Smith-1%, Moss-1%, Brandon Wood-1%, Keppinger-1%, Prado-0%, Garciaparra-3%.
Here is the chart showing how the top ten has fared thus far:
| 4-Apr | 11-Apr | 18-Apr | |||
| Baker | C | Flor | 4 | 6 | 15 |
| Ishikawa | 1B | SF | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| Johnson, Nick | 1B | Wash | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tracy | 1B | Ariz | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| Prado | 1B,2B,3B | Atl | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Cabrera, A. | 2B,SS | Clev | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Bonifiacio | 2B | Flor | 2 | 69 | 81 |
| Rolen | 3B | Tor | 4 | 11 | 31 |
| LaRoche, Andy | 3B | Pitt | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| Wood | 3B, SS | Ana | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| Garciaparra | 1B,3B,SS | Oak | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Francisco | OF | Clev | 3 | 2 | 2 |
| Fowler | OF | Col | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| Cuddyer | OF | Minn | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Morgan, N. | OF | Pitt | 5 | 28 | |
| Ross | OF | Flor | 5 | 4 | |
| Byrd | OF | Tex | 5 | ||
| Thurston | 3B,OF | SL | 2 |
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Diamonds In The Rough-Weekly Update
Here are the top ten batters who are owned in 5% or fewer of Yahoo leagues:
1. Cuddyer-off to a 211/286/263 start, but has started every game and is talented.
2.Chad Tracy-308/286/538 with a home run. Like many of the players on this list, he plays for a team that flies under the radar (there aren't any Yankees or Red Sox on this list) and he has battled injuries, so he hasn't been able to display what he's capable of.
3.Nick Johnson-357/400/429 with four runs scored. Similar history to Tracy.
4.Ishikawa-308/308/462 is in line with his minor league record, even a bit below. Just needed a shot and is getting one now.
5.Ben Francisco-only batting 143, but has started every game. He will produce with regular at bats and hopefully the Indians will remain patient.
6.A. Cabrera-same as his teammate Francisco. He probably has a longer leash sicne he plays 2B.
7.N. Morgan-new to the list. If you need steals, he could be the next Bonifacio. A speedy 300 hitter in the minors, then hit 294 in 160 at bats for the Bucs in 2008. Hitting 316 and has started four of five games.
8.Fowler-no at bats the first two games, then gets a start and belts a homer. That earned him another start and he went 2-4 and he's now sporting a nifty 375/500/750 line. When an elite prospect heats up, he's a good bet for an increase in playing time.
9.Cody Ross-also new to the list. Hit 260 and slugged 488 last year and i capable of producing even better numbers. Is only 1-15 so far, so a good day will help keep him in the lineup, where it's probably just a matter of time before he heats up.
10.Andy LaRoche-slumping even worse than Ross. Has so much potential and plays a key position. The Pirates will likely give him a longer leash than most teams, so he could prove to be a great bargain if he comes close to his potential.
Some others worth keeping an eye on:
Byrd-OF-Tex-3%
Garciaparra-3%
Chavez-3BOak-2%
Callaspo-2B,SS-KC-1%
Just need playing time:
Brandon Wood-1%
Seth Smith-OF-Col-1%
Moss-OF-Pitt-1%
Prado-1%
Keppinger-3B,SS-Hou-1%
Here's a chart and how players on my list have fared so far:
Feel free to comment and ask questions. I welcome all input and will respond quickly!
1. Cuddyer-off to a 211/286/263 start, but has started every game and is talented.
2.Chad Tracy-308/286/538 with a home run. Like many of the players on this list, he plays for a team that flies under the radar (there aren't any Yankees or Red Sox on this list) and he has battled injuries, so he hasn't been able to display what he's capable of.
3.Nick Johnson-357/400/429 with four runs scored. Similar history to Tracy.
4.Ishikawa-308/308/462 is in line with his minor league record, even a bit below. Just needed a shot and is getting one now.
5.Ben Francisco-only batting 143, but has started every game. He will produce with regular at bats and hopefully the Indians will remain patient.
6.A. Cabrera-same as his teammate Francisco. He probably has a longer leash sicne he plays 2B.
7.N. Morgan-new to the list. If you need steals, he could be the next Bonifacio. A speedy 300 hitter in the minors, then hit 294 in 160 at bats for the Bucs in 2008. Hitting 316 and has started four of five games.
8.Fowler-no at bats the first two games, then gets a start and belts a homer. That earned him another start and he went 2-4 and he's now sporting a nifty 375/500/750 line. When an elite prospect heats up, he's a good bet for an increase in playing time.
9.Cody Ross-also new to the list. Hit 260 and slugged 488 last year and i capable of producing even better numbers. Is only 1-15 so far, so a good day will help keep him in the lineup, where it's probably just a matter of time before he heats up.
10.Andy LaRoche-slumping even worse than Ross. Has so much potential and plays a key position. The Pirates will likely give him a longer leash than most teams, so he could prove to be a great bargain if he comes close to his potential.
Some others worth keeping an eye on:
Byrd-OF-Tex-3%
Garciaparra-3%
Chavez-3BOak-2%
Callaspo-2B,SS-KC-1%
Just need playing time:
Brandon Wood-1%
Seth Smith-OF-Col-1%
Moss-OF-Pitt-1%
Prado-1%
Keppinger-3B,SS-Hou-1%
Here's a chart and how players on my list have fared so far:
| 4-Apr | 11-Apr | |||
| Baker | C | Flor | 4 | 6 |
| Ishikawa | 1B | SF | 4 | 5 |
| Johnson, Nick | 1B | Wash | 2 | 2 |
| Tracy | 1B | Ariz | 1 | 3 |
| Prado | 1B,2B,3B | Atl | 1 | 1 |
| Cabrera, A. | 2B,SS | Clev | 3 | 3 |
| Bonifiacio | 2B | Flor | 2 | 69 |
| Rolen | 3B | Tor | 4 | 11 |
| LaRoche, Andy | 3B | Pitt | 2 | 2 |
| Wood | 3B, SS | Ana | 2 | 1 |
| Garciaparra | 1B,3B,SS | Oak | 2 | 3 |
| Francisco | OF | Clev | 3 | 2 |
| Fowler | OF | Col | 2 | 3 |
| Cuddyer | OF | Minn | 2 | 2 |
| Morgan, N. | OF | Pitt | 5 | |
| Ross | OF | Flor | 5 |
Feel free to comment and ask questions. I welcome all input and will respond quickly!
Wednesday, April 8, 2009
Diamonds In The Rough-Batters Update
My article on April 4th listed 14 players owned in 5% of yahoo leagues or less. Here's a list with their April 4th percentage followed by their current showing:
Baker-C-Flor 4% 5% Through today's game he's 3-7 with 3 RBI, a double, and a walk. Expect his value to skyrocket shortly and grab him while there's still time, especially at a generally weak position like catcher. He was the highest ranked player on my list, meaning the one most likely to exceed 5%. Actually, two players already have.
Ishikawa-1B-SF 4% 4% 2-5 with a triple and 3 RBI on opening day. Ranked in my top five.
Nick Johnson-1B-Wash 4% 4% 4-8 and he hasn't hurt himself yet. Just kidding. Well, kind of...#4 on my list.
Chad Tracy-1B-AZ 1% 3% 3-8 with a home run and batted cleanup opening day. A talented player in the 4th slot should be owned in most leagues. I had him slotted at #3.
Prado-1B-Atl 1% 1% Chipper Jones is already day-to-day and Prado can play almost anywhere. He just needs a chance. Hasn't played yet.
A. Cabrera-2B-Clev 3% 3% 0-3 in his one game thus far. Not everyone can make a splash right away!
Bonifacio-2B-Flor 2% 56% That is not a misprint. He literally jumped 54% in five days (literally speaking, that's a 2800% improvment)! It helps when you go 8-14 with six runs, 4 RBI, 4 steals, a triple and a homer in the first three games!
Rolen-3B-Tor 4% 7% The other player who already exceeded 5%. He's a recognizable name off to a good start, going 3-7 with a home run.
LaRoche-3B-Pitt 2% 2% 0-6 with three errors. He got off to a dismal start last season too. At least he's consistent!
Wood-SS-Ana 2% 1% The only player who decreased and really he has long-term potential over the season but short-term he isn't playing much. One to be patient with.
Garciaparra-SS-Oak 2% 3% 2-9 so far. Hopefully he can produce early on and retain a starting role. See the above comments on Nick Johnson for the rest of the story.
Francisco-OF-Clev 3% 3% 1-3 and wants to steal more bases. He won't remain at 3% for long.
Fowler-OF-Col 2% 2% Top prospect who started today for the first time this season and led off the game with a home run. That will earn you more playing time!
Cuddyer-OF-Minn 2% 2% 3-8 with 3 RBI. The downside is his five outs have all been k's. All or nothing so far.
In future editions I'm toying with the idea of having a chart showing players from past editions and their current percentage along with a top ten list of current bargain players. Any feedback or suggestions are greatly appreciated.
If you need any advice, feel free to comment here and I'll respond quickly.
Baker-C-Flor 4% 5% Through today's game he's 3-7 with 3 RBI, a double, and a walk. Expect his value to skyrocket shortly and grab him while there's still time, especially at a generally weak position like catcher. He was the highest ranked player on my list, meaning the one most likely to exceed 5%. Actually, two players already have.
Ishikawa-1B-SF 4% 4% 2-5 with a triple and 3 RBI on opening day. Ranked in my top five.
Nick Johnson-1B-Wash 4% 4% 4-8 and he hasn't hurt himself yet. Just kidding. Well, kind of...#4 on my list.
Chad Tracy-1B-AZ 1% 3% 3-8 with a home run and batted cleanup opening day. A talented player in the 4th slot should be owned in most leagues. I had him slotted at #3.
Prado-1B-Atl 1% 1% Chipper Jones is already day-to-day and Prado can play almost anywhere. He just needs a chance. Hasn't played yet.
A. Cabrera-2B-Clev 3% 3% 0-3 in his one game thus far. Not everyone can make a splash right away!
Bonifacio-2B-Flor 2% 56% That is not a misprint. He literally jumped 54% in five days (literally speaking, that's a 2800% improvment)! It helps when you go 8-14 with six runs, 4 RBI, 4 steals, a triple and a homer in the first three games!
Rolen-3B-Tor 4% 7% The other player who already exceeded 5%. He's a recognizable name off to a good start, going 3-7 with a home run.
LaRoche-3B-Pitt 2% 2% 0-6 with three errors. He got off to a dismal start last season too. At least he's consistent!
Wood-SS-Ana 2% 1% The only player who decreased and really he has long-term potential over the season but short-term he isn't playing much. One to be patient with.
Garciaparra-SS-Oak 2% 3% 2-9 so far. Hopefully he can produce early on and retain a starting role. See the above comments on Nick Johnson for the rest of the story.
Francisco-OF-Clev 3% 3% 1-3 and wants to steal more bases. He won't remain at 3% for long.
Fowler-OF-Col 2% 2% Top prospect who started today for the first time this season and led off the game with a home run. That will earn you more playing time!
Cuddyer-OF-Minn 2% 2% 3-8 with 3 RBI. The downside is his five outs have all been k's. All or nothing so far.
In future editions I'm toying with the idea of having a chart showing players from past editions and their current percentage along with a top ten list of current bargain players. Any feedback or suggestions are greatly appreciated.
If you need any advice, feel free to comment here and I'll respond quickly.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Diamonds In The Rough-Pitchers
Yesterday I reviewed several hitters who are owned in 5% or fewer of Yahoo leagues. Today I'll do the same with pitchers.
First a note about pitching that bears repeating: they are much more inconsistent from year to year compared to batters. Often they just need a shot at starting, so if they're in the rotation they can potentially help your team. The deeper the league, the more darts you need to throw at pitchers. Here are several who can help:
Leo Nunez-Flor-5% Matt Lindstrom is penciled in as the closer and he's experiencing shoulder issues. Nunez is next in line. Need I say more? He was a key member of the KC pen last year, ending with a 2.98 ERA. Even if Lindstrom is healthy, his name isn't etched in stone by any means, so Nunez is worth picking up.
Clay Bucholz-Bos-5% He has been absolutely lights out in the minors, often posting sub 2.00 ERA's and striking out a batter an inning. He excelled in a brief stint with the Sox in 2007, leading to lofty expectations, and he failed to deliver last year. A bright spot though is he still averaged around a K/IP. He has looked sharp this spring too. The downside is he's not currently in the rotation. However, he is behind the fragile Brad Penny and should be next in line and has giant upside. He's the type of player who can pay huge dividends and lead your team to the fantasy promised land.
John Lannan-Wash-4% He is the ace of the Washington staff and while he's not a true #1 starter, he did look good last year in his first full season, finishing with a 3.91 ERA. He's not a fluke, as he actually had a 1.66 ERA in his last stint in AAA. His K/IP rates are low, and I normally like pitchers with a 2/3 ratio or higher, but you can't argue with his track record and the fact that he'll pitch a ton for his team this year.
Trevor Cahill-Oak-3% An excellent prospect whose worst minor league ERA was 2.78. He has k rates hovering around 1 and is in the Oakland rotation. The A's may surprise this year and he couldbe one of the reasons.
David Purcey-Tor-2% He's been inconsistent in the minors and majors. It seems like his ERA is either in the 2's or 5's. He's slotted #3 in the Jays rotation and has k rates between .9-1, so there's potential here. I like strikeout pitchers to begin with, as they have much better chances of breaking through historically, plus if you're in a league that rewards k's it's an added bonus. Intriguing.
Glen Perkins-Minn-2% He went 12-4 last year and has good minor league stats. He doesn't get much recognition playing for the Twins, but 2% is awfully low for a young player coming off a 12-4 season. The one caveat here is he had a poor K rate last year despite many good ones throughout his minor league career. Hopefully he will increase it this season. He's in the rotation and the Twins are usually good.
Andrew Miller-Flor-2% Some see him as a future ace and he did put up a 0.59 ERA in nearly 31 AA innings in 2007. He has flashed potential in the majors, but so far has not put it together in the big leagues. The talent is there and he's in the rotation. That's a nice combination.
Pedro Martinez-unsigned-2% Don't laugh-yes, he doesn't have a team and he's 37. However, he looked good in the WBC and he did stroke out 87 batters in 109 innings last year. I there enough left in the tank for one more Pedro-like season? If so, he's the kind of player that can make a season.
James McDonald-LA-2% A promising young pitcher who was the best in the Dodgers minor league organization last year, averaging a K/IP. He's in the rotation and could be a great pick if he performs well in the early going. Probably won't be available for long.
Homer Bailey-Cinc-1% An elite prospect who struggled mightily with the Reds last season. He's still 22 as of this writing and has the talent. The key question is when will he put it together? One to watch closely and pounce on if he has a good start or two. He may not be in the rotation quite yet, but h will have his chance soon enough.
Rowland-Smith-Sea-1% Admittedly more of a longshot, although he did pitch 118..3 innings for the Mariners last season and finished with a good 3.42 ERA. His K rate was almost at the 2/3 mark and it was higher in the minors. He's in the rotation and could post some solid numbers again.
Top Five:
1.Cahill
2.McDonald
3.Bucholz
4.Perkins
5.Nunez
First a note about pitching that bears repeating: they are much more inconsistent from year to year compared to batters. Often they just need a shot at starting, so if they're in the rotation they can potentially help your team. The deeper the league, the more darts you need to throw at pitchers. Here are several who can help:
Leo Nunez-Flor-5% Matt Lindstrom is penciled in as the closer and he's experiencing shoulder issues. Nunez is next in line. Need I say more? He was a key member of the KC pen last year, ending with a 2.98 ERA. Even if Lindstrom is healthy, his name isn't etched in stone by any means, so Nunez is worth picking up.
Clay Bucholz-Bos-5% He has been absolutely lights out in the minors, often posting sub 2.00 ERA's and striking out a batter an inning. He excelled in a brief stint with the Sox in 2007, leading to lofty expectations, and he failed to deliver last year. A bright spot though is he still averaged around a K/IP. He has looked sharp this spring too. The downside is he's not currently in the rotation. However, he is behind the fragile Brad Penny and should be next in line and has giant upside. He's the type of player who can pay huge dividends and lead your team to the fantasy promised land.
John Lannan-Wash-4% He is the ace of the Washington staff and while he's not a true #1 starter, he did look good last year in his first full season, finishing with a 3.91 ERA. He's not a fluke, as he actually had a 1.66 ERA in his last stint in AAA. His K/IP rates are low, and I normally like pitchers with a 2/3 ratio or higher, but you can't argue with his track record and the fact that he'll pitch a ton for his team this year.
Trevor Cahill-Oak-3% An excellent prospect whose worst minor league ERA was 2.78. He has k rates hovering around 1 and is in the Oakland rotation. The A's may surprise this year and he couldbe one of the reasons.
David Purcey-Tor-2% He's been inconsistent in the minors and majors. It seems like his ERA is either in the 2's or 5's. He's slotted #3 in the Jays rotation and has k rates between .9-1, so there's potential here. I like strikeout pitchers to begin with, as they have much better chances of breaking through historically, plus if you're in a league that rewards k's it's an added bonus. Intriguing.
Glen Perkins-Minn-2% He went 12-4 last year and has good minor league stats. He doesn't get much recognition playing for the Twins, but 2% is awfully low for a young player coming off a 12-4 season. The one caveat here is he had a poor K rate last year despite many good ones throughout his minor league career. Hopefully he will increase it this season. He's in the rotation and the Twins are usually good.
Andrew Miller-Flor-2% Some see him as a future ace and he did put up a 0.59 ERA in nearly 31 AA innings in 2007. He has flashed potential in the majors, but so far has not put it together in the big leagues. The talent is there and he's in the rotation. That's a nice combination.
Pedro Martinez-unsigned-2% Don't laugh-yes, he doesn't have a team and he's 37. However, he looked good in the WBC and he did stroke out 87 batters in 109 innings last year. I there enough left in the tank for one more Pedro-like season? If so, he's the kind of player that can make a season.
James McDonald-LA-2% A promising young pitcher who was the best in the Dodgers minor league organization last year, averaging a K/IP. He's in the rotation and could be a great pick if he performs well in the early going. Probably won't be available for long.
Homer Bailey-Cinc-1% An elite prospect who struggled mightily with the Reds last season. He's still 22 as of this writing and has the talent. The key question is when will he put it together? One to watch closely and pounce on if he has a good start or two. He may not be in the rotation quite yet, but h will have his chance soon enough.
Rowland-Smith-Sea-1% Admittedly more of a longshot, although he did pitch 118..3 innings for the Mariners last season and finished with a good 3.42 ERA. His K rate was almost at the 2/3 mark and it was higher in the minors. He's in the rotation and could post some solid numbers again.
Top Five:
1.Cahill
2.McDonald
3.Bucholz
4.Perkins
5.Nunez
Saturday, April 4, 2009
Diamonds In The Rough
I'm reviewing players who are owned in less than 5% of Yahoo leagues. There are some surprisingly good players who are better or have more potential than players far above them. So if you're in a deeper league and looking for a good free agent to sign, stop by here and I'll update the list every week or two during the season.
Catcher:
John Baker-Flor-4% last year he posted a line of 299/392/447 in 197 AB's (AVG, OBP, SLG) and had even better numbers in AAA. He's starting and hit 370/442/478 in the spring as of 4/1. He's one player I can almost guarantee won't remain on this list for long!
First Base:
Travis Ishikawa-SF-4% raked in AAA last year (310/370/737), performed well in a trial with SF last year (271/333/448) and is starting. A 316/350/632 spring for a 25 year-old starter is intriguing. Like Baker, he won't stay on this list for long. They're just a little unknown and that will change once the season starts.
Nick Johnson-Wash-2% Often injured, missing all of 2007 and most of 2008, but he can hit and he's still only 30. His last full season, in 2006, he scored 100 runs and hit 290/428/520. He's healthy (at least for now) and batting sixth in a preety good Washington lineup.
Chad Tracy-Ariz-1% Like Johnson, has battled injuries for a while, so he's flying under the radar. His career numbers are 285/343/461 and he's only 29. Also like Johnson, his last full season was in 2006, posting a 281/343/451 mark. The year before was 308/359/553. He's batting 386 in the spring as of 4/4 with a 444 OBP and is starting at 1B.
Nick Prado-Atl-1% In 228 AB's last year he hit 320/377/461. Playing time is the main issue here. He is eligible at 1B, 2B, and 3B and can fill in for the oft-injured Chipper Jones among others. If he's starting, his value should skyrocket. Right now, he's one to own in deep leagues and a name to remember should he grab hold of a starting job again.
Second Base:
Asdrubal Cabrera-Clev-3% Only 23, starting, and a player on the rise. Hit 320/398/464 in the second half after recovering from some injury issues and looked good in the minors previously. It's not out of the question that he approaches his second half numbers over a full season. If he even gets close, he's a huge bargain. Also eligible at shortstop.
Emilio Bonifacio-Flor-2% Batting leadoff and can help in steals (he stole a total of 102 bases between 2006-2007 in the minors). The question here is will he hit enough? 302/348/387 in AAA last year but struggled in the majors. Still, he has some potential and should improve at age 23, so if you need help in steals you could gamble on him.
Third Base:
Scott Rolen-Tor-4% Okay, he's 34 and injury prone. That's the bad news. The good news is he's healthy and hitting 417 this spring as of 4/3. Last year he hit only 262/349/431, but maybe he has one more great year left in the tank. As recently as 2006 he posted a line of 296/369/518, so if he come anywhere near that he'll provide good value. Another gamble and one to monitor as the season opens. My guess is he plays great for the first half or so then slides as the season wears on.
Andy LaRoche-Pitt-2% Always put up great numbers in the minors and was a heralded prospect and a key component of the Jason Bay trade. He was dreadful last year. The again, he was only 24. He's starting and stiull offers plenty of upside if he figures things out. I wouldn't grab him right away. Just watch and see if he gets off to a good start unless you want to roll the dice.
Shortstop:
Brandon Wood-Ana-2% yeah, he's not starting and hasn't produced at the big league level. His minor league numbers are enormous though. Last year he hit 296/375/595. Not bad for a player eligible at both 3B and SS. Needs to find his way into the lineup somehow AND produce. A longshot, but one to watch just in case, as his upside is tremendous.
Nomar Garciaparra-Oak-2% You know the drill with Nomar. You also know his upside if he can somhow stay healthy. He should play half to 2/3 of the time unless he really gets hot, which is possible. Of course, it's also possible he pulls a hammy on opening day. Just remember that he's capable of big numbers.
Outfield:
Ben Francisco-Clev-3% Put up excellent numbers in AAA and had a solid rookie year in 2008, with a line of 266/332/438. He's 27 and on the rise, starting, and batting 364 thgis spring as of 4/1. He's another player who's relatively unknown right now but won't stay that way for long.
Dexter Fowler-Col-2% A top prospect after posting 329/413/519 335/431/515 seasons in AA the last two years. The question is his playing time and if he'll produce right away. The talent is definitely there already.
Michael Cuddyer-Minn-2% Injured for much of last season and, like most players on the Twins, underrated to begin with. In 2007 he hit 276/356/433 and the year before 284/362/504. This spring as of 4/3? 317/358/525. He's starting most nights and is another who will jump off this list quickly.
Top Five Players Whose Value Should Rise:
1.Baker
2.Cuddyer
3.Tracy
4.Johnson
5.Ishikawa
Coming up next: Pitchers (and plenty of them)
Catcher:
John Baker-Flor-4% last year he posted a line of 299/392/447 in 197 AB's (AVG, OBP, SLG) and had even better numbers in AAA. He's starting and hit 370/442/478 in the spring as of 4/1. He's one player I can almost guarantee won't remain on this list for long!
First Base:
Travis Ishikawa-SF-4% raked in AAA last year (310/370/737), performed well in a trial with SF last year (271/333/448) and is starting. A 316/350/632 spring for a 25 year-old starter is intriguing. Like Baker, he won't stay on this list for long. They're just a little unknown and that will change once the season starts.
Nick Johnson-Wash-2% Often injured, missing all of 2007 and most of 2008, but he can hit and he's still only 30. His last full season, in 2006, he scored 100 runs and hit 290/428/520. He's healthy (at least for now) and batting sixth in a preety good Washington lineup.
Chad Tracy-Ariz-1% Like Johnson, has battled injuries for a while, so he's flying under the radar. His career numbers are 285/343/461 and he's only 29. Also like Johnson, his last full season was in 2006, posting a 281/343/451 mark. The year before was 308/359/553. He's batting 386 in the spring as of 4/4 with a 444 OBP and is starting at 1B.
Nick Prado-Atl-1% In 228 AB's last year he hit 320/377/461. Playing time is the main issue here. He is eligible at 1B, 2B, and 3B and can fill in for the oft-injured Chipper Jones among others. If he's starting, his value should skyrocket. Right now, he's one to own in deep leagues and a name to remember should he grab hold of a starting job again.
Second Base:
Asdrubal Cabrera-Clev-3% Only 23, starting, and a player on the rise. Hit 320/398/464 in the second half after recovering from some injury issues and looked good in the minors previously. It's not out of the question that he approaches his second half numbers over a full season. If he even gets close, he's a huge bargain. Also eligible at shortstop.
Emilio Bonifacio-Flor-2% Batting leadoff and can help in steals (he stole a total of 102 bases between 2006-2007 in the minors). The question here is will he hit enough? 302/348/387 in AAA last year but struggled in the majors. Still, he has some potential and should improve at age 23, so if you need help in steals you could gamble on him.
Third Base:
Scott Rolen-Tor-4% Okay, he's 34 and injury prone. That's the bad news. The good news is he's healthy and hitting 417 this spring as of 4/3. Last year he hit only 262/349/431, but maybe he has one more great year left in the tank. As recently as 2006 he posted a line of 296/369/518, so if he come anywhere near that he'll provide good value. Another gamble and one to monitor as the season opens. My guess is he plays great for the first half or so then slides as the season wears on.
Andy LaRoche-Pitt-2% Always put up great numbers in the minors and was a heralded prospect and a key component of the Jason Bay trade. He was dreadful last year. The again, he was only 24. He's starting and stiull offers plenty of upside if he figures things out. I wouldn't grab him right away. Just watch and see if he gets off to a good start unless you want to roll the dice.
Shortstop:
Brandon Wood-Ana-2% yeah, he's not starting and hasn't produced at the big league level. His minor league numbers are enormous though. Last year he hit 296/375/595. Not bad for a player eligible at both 3B and SS. Needs to find his way into the lineup somehow AND produce. A longshot, but one to watch just in case, as his upside is tremendous.
Nomar Garciaparra-Oak-2% You know the drill with Nomar. You also know his upside if he can somhow stay healthy. He should play half to 2/3 of the time unless he really gets hot, which is possible. Of course, it's also possible he pulls a hammy on opening day. Just remember that he's capable of big numbers.
Outfield:
Ben Francisco-Clev-3% Put up excellent numbers in AAA and had a solid rookie year in 2008, with a line of 266/332/438. He's 27 and on the rise, starting, and batting 364 thgis spring as of 4/1. He's another player who's relatively unknown right now but won't stay that way for long.
Dexter Fowler-Col-2% A top prospect after posting 329/413/519 335/431/515 seasons in AA the last two years. The question is his playing time and if he'll produce right away. The talent is definitely there already.
Michael Cuddyer-Minn-2% Injured for much of last season and, like most players on the Twins, underrated to begin with. In 2007 he hit 276/356/433 and the year before 284/362/504. This spring as of 4/3? 317/358/525. He's starting most nights and is another who will jump off this list quickly.
Top Five Players Whose Value Should Rise:
1.Baker
2.Cuddyer
3.Tracy
4.Johnson
5.Ishikawa
Coming up next: Pitchers (and plenty of them)
Tuesday, June 5, 2007
Roster Decisions-The Big Fly
One of the trickiest aspects of fantasy baseball is knowing when to drop a player. When a player is off to a slow start, do you stick with him and hope he turns it around soon or cut your losses?
One important point to remember is that baseball has a long season with 162 games. A player's peformance will usually revert to his established mean over the long run, meaning if he's an excellent player and slumps for the first month or so, he still has an excellent chance of turning it around. Gary Sheffield is a prime example. He started this season in a prolonged slump, hitting worse than some pitchers. However, he rewarded his patient owners with a nice rebound, which should be expected considering his career norms.
The opposite also holds true. Mark Hendrickson is a prime example of a pitcher who overachieved in his first few starts only to be out of the rotation about a month later.
Those are the easier situations to deal with. It's not a tough decision to stick with Gary Sheffield. What about a younger player who has a good if not great minor league record but does not have enough major league experience to project his numbers with reasonable accuracy?
My rule of thumb is: if he's starting every day, it's usually a safe bet to keep him in your lineup. I figure major league teams have much more at stake than fantasy owners, so if they feel comfortable starting him, then you should too. Like any rule of thumb, you still have to use your own judgement. A team may be in rebuilding mode or, especially later in the season, have thrown in the towel and want to test out some different players. Generally, though, this method works.
The Padres slated Kevin Kouzmanoff as their everyday third baseman after he tore the cover off the ball in AAA. As of May 10th, he was batting .108, in one of the worst slumps in recent memory. Bud Black, the Padres manager, remained patient and still gave him the majority of starts. Most teams would have either benched him or sent him back to the minors, but he eventually turned things around and hit well over .300 for the month of May.
On the flip side, I drafted Wes Helms in a couple leagues this year fresh off a season where he batted .325 and slugged .575 in part-time duty. In fact, his career has been on the upswing for a while now. At the beginning of the season he didn't perform badly, just not up to expectations, and the Phillies panicked. As of this writing, he has started only two of their past eight games and I dropped him off my rosters.
In a situation like that, where a player is playing only half the games or less, even if he performs well his contribution to your team will still be limited because he's sitting on the bench half the time. Also, it's difficult for a player to develop a rhythm when he's shifted in and out of the lineup. Generally, it's best to move on.
Another way to help with personnel decisions is to keep in mind the value of each player, as I discussed in a previous article. If a player is still starting, or for pitchers if they are still in the rotation or the team's closer, then they still have value close to their pre-season projections. Watch for impatient owners dropping a player off to a slow start or target underperformers in trades and you could be well on your way to a strong run in the second half of the season!
I love to talk baseball, so please feel free to post any comments and opinions or email me at tim10966@gmail.com.
One important point to remember is that baseball has a long season with 162 games. A player's peformance will usually revert to his established mean over the long run, meaning if he's an excellent player and slumps for the first month or so, he still has an excellent chance of turning it around. Gary Sheffield is a prime example. He started this season in a prolonged slump, hitting worse than some pitchers. However, he rewarded his patient owners with a nice rebound, which should be expected considering his career norms.
The opposite also holds true. Mark Hendrickson is a prime example of a pitcher who overachieved in his first few starts only to be out of the rotation about a month later.
Those are the easier situations to deal with. It's not a tough decision to stick with Gary Sheffield. What about a younger player who has a good if not great minor league record but does not have enough major league experience to project his numbers with reasonable accuracy?
My rule of thumb is: if he's starting every day, it's usually a safe bet to keep him in your lineup. I figure major league teams have much more at stake than fantasy owners, so if they feel comfortable starting him, then you should too. Like any rule of thumb, you still have to use your own judgement. A team may be in rebuilding mode or, especially later in the season, have thrown in the towel and want to test out some different players. Generally, though, this method works.
The Padres slated Kevin Kouzmanoff as their everyday third baseman after he tore the cover off the ball in AAA. As of May 10th, he was batting .108, in one of the worst slumps in recent memory. Bud Black, the Padres manager, remained patient and still gave him the majority of starts. Most teams would have either benched him or sent him back to the minors, but he eventually turned things around and hit well over .300 for the month of May.
On the flip side, I drafted Wes Helms in a couple leagues this year fresh off a season where he batted .325 and slugged .575 in part-time duty. In fact, his career has been on the upswing for a while now. At the beginning of the season he didn't perform badly, just not up to expectations, and the Phillies panicked. As of this writing, he has started only two of their past eight games and I dropped him off my rosters.
In a situation like that, where a player is playing only half the games or less, even if he performs well his contribution to your team will still be limited because he's sitting on the bench half the time. Also, it's difficult for a player to develop a rhythm when he's shifted in and out of the lineup. Generally, it's best to move on.
Another way to help with personnel decisions is to keep in mind the value of each player, as I discussed in a previous article. If a player is still starting, or for pitchers if they are still in the rotation or the team's closer, then they still have value close to their pre-season projections. Watch for impatient owners dropping a player off to a slow start or target underperformers in trades and you could be well on your way to a strong run in the second half of the season!
I love to talk baseball, so please feel free to post any comments and opinions or email me at tim10966@gmail.com.
Wednesday, May 23, 2007
The Big Fly-Free Agents
Draft day is the single most important event of the season for your team. No matter how skilled a drafter you are, however, the key to success over the long haul is managing your team well. Specifically, this means using the free agent pool to your advantage. Indeed, winning a championship based on a good draft alone is as rare as a pitcher hitting a home run. Yes, it does happen, but the general rule of thumb is: the more competitive a league, the harder it is to win without skillfully running your team during the ups and downs of the season.
A simplification technique I have always used is viewing every player as having a particular value, like a stock. Just like a stock, a multitude of variables can influence a player's value, such as past performance, how his manager will likely use him, his health, etc. For example, J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was a pretty good prospect when he entered the majors a few years ago, but he has struggled somewhat, compounded by a propensity to miss large chunks of time with injuries. His value was low enough entering the 2007 season where he went undrafted in many leagues.
As of this writing, he is leading the National League in home runs, thanks to good health (knock on wood), more experience, and batting in a Brewer offense that's more potent than it has been in years, perhaps since the days of Harvey's Wallbangers. Any home run leader has tremendous value, but a shortstop?! Needless to say, his value has skyrocketed.
If Hardy was available in your league's free agent pool, he is surely long gone by now. Essentially, his value increased enough for the lucky owner who picked him up when his value exceeded someone elses on his team. That's the way I look at it. I don't normally assign a numerical value beyond draft day. Rather, I have a rough idea of how much each player is worth. Games are played daily, injuries occur, players are called up or sent down to the minors, become starters or vice versa, etc. In other words, just like the stock market, baseball is dynamic, with values changing every single day of the season. To reach the top, you have to stay on top of the news and be aware of who is available.
So what is the best way to sort through the multitude of available players? No matter how skilled a player is, if he doesn't play regularly, it's next to impossible to help your team, unless you think he's so good he won't be overlooked all season and you have room on your roster to stash him away. Otherwise, the best players to target are those whose playing time is on the upswing, mainly players who just earned a chance to start. When that happens, I then examine his historical performance, including the minor leagues. There are many players who have excelled in the minors but haven't had much of an opportunity to play in the big leagues. Just recently, Jack Cust of the A's was given a shot to start in the outfield. He has terrorized minor league pitchers for years but really hasn't had much of a trial in the big show. Now he's looking like the real deal, blasting a homer seemingly every other game.
Those types of players can have huge payoffs if you jump early. They don't all work out, of course. Sometimes they slump, the window closes fast, and their value drops. Over a long season, though, you will hit paydirt sometimes, and it's a great feeling. It's surprising how many players have big time ability and don't really have a chance to display their skills. Some players languish in utility roles for years before really having the chance to shine.
Pitchers are more of a crapshoot, but here's a secret: pay close attention to their K/IP ratio, especially for starters. If it's not at least 2/3, they will rarely achieve long-term success unless their name is Jimmy Key. Even if a pitcher has struggled somewhat, if he has high strikeout rates and is starting, I will invariable take a chance on him. Even better, many leagues count strikeouts or strikeout ratio as a category, so you have a leg up to begin with. In general, history has shown that strikeout pitchers excel far more than their soft-tossing counterparts, so don't hesitate to jump on the bandwagon.
Lastly, assuming saves are important in your league, pay close attention to each team's closer situation. In particular, if a team's ace reliever is struggling, usually there is another guy on the team throwing well and, with one more blown save by the closer, might find himself in that role before too long. If you have room on your roster for closers in waiting, you have a real good chance of a huge payoff.
Two or three major pickups can be enough for an average team to make the playoffs. Once you make the post-season, anything can happen, so stay on top of the news and you will reap the rewards!
Good luck this week. If you have any comments or are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, feel free to email me at tim10966@gmail.com for details. Also, please see my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.
A simplification technique I have always used is viewing every player as having a particular value, like a stock. Just like a stock, a multitude of variables can influence a player's value, such as past performance, how his manager will likely use him, his health, etc. For example, J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was a pretty good prospect when he entered the majors a few years ago, but he has struggled somewhat, compounded by a propensity to miss large chunks of time with injuries. His value was low enough entering the 2007 season where he went undrafted in many leagues.
As of this writing, he is leading the National League in home runs, thanks to good health (knock on wood), more experience, and batting in a Brewer offense that's more potent than it has been in years, perhaps since the days of Harvey's Wallbangers. Any home run leader has tremendous value, but a shortstop?! Needless to say, his value has skyrocketed.
If Hardy was available in your league's free agent pool, he is surely long gone by now. Essentially, his value increased enough for the lucky owner who picked him up when his value exceeded someone elses on his team. That's the way I look at it. I don't normally assign a numerical value beyond draft day. Rather, I have a rough idea of how much each player is worth. Games are played daily, injuries occur, players are called up or sent down to the minors, become starters or vice versa, etc. In other words, just like the stock market, baseball is dynamic, with values changing every single day of the season. To reach the top, you have to stay on top of the news and be aware of who is available.
So what is the best way to sort through the multitude of available players? No matter how skilled a player is, if he doesn't play regularly, it's next to impossible to help your team, unless you think he's so good he won't be overlooked all season and you have room on your roster to stash him away. Otherwise, the best players to target are those whose playing time is on the upswing, mainly players who just earned a chance to start. When that happens, I then examine his historical performance, including the minor leagues. There are many players who have excelled in the minors but haven't had much of an opportunity to play in the big leagues. Just recently, Jack Cust of the A's was given a shot to start in the outfield. He has terrorized minor league pitchers for years but really hasn't had much of a trial in the big show. Now he's looking like the real deal, blasting a homer seemingly every other game.
Those types of players can have huge payoffs if you jump early. They don't all work out, of course. Sometimes they slump, the window closes fast, and their value drops. Over a long season, though, you will hit paydirt sometimes, and it's a great feeling. It's surprising how many players have big time ability and don't really have a chance to display their skills. Some players languish in utility roles for years before really having the chance to shine.
Pitchers are more of a crapshoot, but here's a secret: pay close attention to their K/IP ratio, especially for starters. If it's not at least 2/3, they will rarely achieve long-term success unless their name is Jimmy Key. Even if a pitcher has struggled somewhat, if he has high strikeout rates and is starting, I will invariable take a chance on him. Even better, many leagues count strikeouts or strikeout ratio as a category, so you have a leg up to begin with. In general, history has shown that strikeout pitchers excel far more than their soft-tossing counterparts, so don't hesitate to jump on the bandwagon.
Lastly, assuming saves are important in your league, pay close attention to each team's closer situation. In particular, if a team's ace reliever is struggling, usually there is another guy on the team throwing well and, with one more blown save by the closer, might find himself in that role before too long. If you have room on your roster for closers in waiting, you have a real good chance of a huge payoff.
Two or three major pickups can be enough for an average team to make the playoffs. Once you make the post-season, anything can happen, so stay on top of the news and you will reap the rewards!
Good luck this week. If you have any comments or are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, feel free to email me at tim10966@gmail.com for details. Also, please see my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.
Wednesday, May 16, 2007
The Big Fly-Hitting vs. Pitching
When I first played fantasy baseball on the internet back in 1997 on the late, great Grandstand game on AOL, I struggled to reach .500. I had watched baseball since I was a little boy, collected baseball cards and immersed myself in the statistics on the back, read the fascinating Baseball Abstracts by Bill James, and competed in leagues with my friends for years. How could I fail to win even with my pitching hand tied behind my back?
I discovered two reasons. First, you need to have access to an informative, constantly updated news source. The internet was fairly new at that time, especially to me, and reading the transaction listings in the back of the sports page did not cut it. By now, this is common knowledge and almost every participant who is even half serious can access sports news. Back then, I noticed that the winner of our league used the Roto News, later to become rotowire.com and I have been a loyal subscriber ever since for all sports.
My second discovery was much more important. As I pored over all the statistics available in Grandstand looking for anything that might help, I stumbled upon something relatively simple and surprising. Our league standings were seperated into total points by batting and pitching. The teams with the best pitching were all over the map, but the teams at the top of the standings were all at or near the top in hitting. Eureka!
Wait a minute, though, was that a fluke? What were the reasons? I thought about it for a while and realized there was something to it, actually quite a bit to it. For several reasons.
One, how many hitters come out of nowhere each year? Not too many. Sure, there are always surprises like Russell Martin last year. However, if you made a list of the top players at each hitting position, it's difficult for an unknown player to crack that lineup. For example, using Yahoo's pre-season rankings for first base eligible players, here are the top ten:
1.Pujols
2.Ortiz
3.Berkman
4.Derrek Lee
5.Morneau
6.Ryan Howard
7.Teixeira
8.Adrian Gonzalez
9.Fielder
10.Sheffield
If you then sort by 2007 performance, six of the top seven first basemen are included in that list, and nine of the ten are in the top 18. In fact, the only player who doesn't show up is Ryan Howard, who is currently on the DL. Here is the list:
1.Fielder
2.Ortiz
3.Morneau
4.Lee
5.Gonzalez
6.Helton
7.Sheffield
8.Youkilis
9.Shawn Green
10.Victor Martinez
I'm pretty sure Sir Albert will appear on that list before too long.
Now let's do the same with pitchers. Here are the pre-draft rankings:
1.Santana
2.Peavy
3.Oswalt
4.Hamels
5.Felix Hernandez
6.Webb
7.Rich Hill
8.Halladay
9.B.J. Ryan
10.Beckett
Only two of them make the top ten now:
1.Peavy
2.Hudson
3.Haren
4.Beckett
5.Francisco Cordero
6.Al Reyes
7.Lilly
8.Penny
9.Saito
10.Marquis
Granted, there are more pitchers than first basemen. I'll get to that in a moment. Still, the success of four of these pitchers is a surprise. Al Reyes was part of a closer committee at the start of the season, Marquis had been awful, Hudson had a horrible season last year, and Penny is good but not a top 20 pitcher by most measures.
Also notice how two of the pitchers on the pre-season list, Ryan and Halladay, are on the DL, and Hernandez has also missed some time. Ryan is actually out for the year. That raises another point-pitchers are more injury prone. The motion necessary to pitch a baseball is unnatural in most cases and leads to many injuries, often serous, while swinging a bat puts much less pressure on the body. In fact, some experts ranked Chris Carpenter as one of the best pitchers entering 2007 and he is also finished for the year.
There are 30 teams, each using a five man pitching rotation as well as a closer. That's 180 players to choose from just to begin the season. With so many injuries and, with such a high variance in performance, the player pool of 180 expands rapidly even during the opening weeks of the season.
In contrast, each team uses only one catcher, one shortstop, etc. for the most part. Some teams platoon players, further reducing the number of players you want on your team. Player turnover is much lower, with fewer injuries and players losing their grip on the starting job. In short, you will have significantly more trouble finding a suitable replacement for a hitter, so you need to make it a priority to draft good ones at each position. With pitchers, you can pick up free agents and have some who were drafted lower come through as pleasant surprises.
In 2004. I took over a last place team in a league where you can keep your six best players. I then lost my best player, Vlad Guerrero, before the season started because he went to the American League. I traded away a couple good pitchers for draft picks and went crazy drafting batters. I finished with a league record 61-13 mark and crushed the opposition in the post-season.
In short, the one most important secret to know in fantasy baseball is to DRAFT HITTERS OVER PITCHERS. It gives you a tremendous advantage. Most people are unaware of this fact and you can use this knowledge to win more than your share of championships!
I discovered two reasons. First, you need to have access to an informative, constantly updated news source. The internet was fairly new at that time, especially to me, and reading the transaction listings in the back of the sports page did not cut it. By now, this is common knowledge and almost every participant who is even half serious can access sports news. Back then, I noticed that the winner of our league used the Roto News, later to become rotowire.com and I have been a loyal subscriber ever since for all sports.
My second discovery was much more important. As I pored over all the statistics available in Grandstand looking for anything that might help, I stumbled upon something relatively simple and surprising. Our league standings were seperated into total points by batting and pitching. The teams with the best pitching were all over the map, but the teams at the top of the standings were all at or near the top in hitting. Eureka!
Wait a minute, though, was that a fluke? What were the reasons? I thought about it for a while and realized there was something to it, actually quite a bit to it. For several reasons.
One, how many hitters come out of nowhere each year? Not too many. Sure, there are always surprises like Russell Martin last year. However, if you made a list of the top players at each hitting position, it's difficult for an unknown player to crack that lineup. For example, using Yahoo's pre-season rankings for first base eligible players, here are the top ten:
1.Pujols
2.Ortiz
3.Berkman
4.Derrek Lee
5.Morneau
6.Ryan Howard
7.Teixeira
8.Adrian Gonzalez
9.Fielder
10.Sheffield
If you then sort by 2007 performance, six of the top seven first basemen are included in that list, and nine of the ten are in the top 18. In fact, the only player who doesn't show up is Ryan Howard, who is currently on the DL. Here is the list:
1.Fielder
2.Ortiz
3.Morneau
4.Lee
5.Gonzalez
6.Helton
7.Sheffield
8.Youkilis
9.Shawn Green
10.Victor Martinez
I'm pretty sure Sir Albert will appear on that list before too long.
Now let's do the same with pitchers. Here are the pre-draft rankings:
1.Santana
2.Peavy
3.Oswalt
4.Hamels
5.Felix Hernandez
6.Webb
7.Rich Hill
8.Halladay
9.B.J. Ryan
10.Beckett
Only two of them make the top ten now:
1.Peavy
2.Hudson
3.Haren
4.Beckett
5.Francisco Cordero
6.Al Reyes
7.Lilly
8.Penny
9.Saito
10.Marquis
Granted, there are more pitchers than first basemen. I'll get to that in a moment. Still, the success of four of these pitchers is a surprise. Al Reyes was part of a closer committee at the start of the season, Marquis had been awful, Hudson had a horrible season last year, and Penny is good but not a top 20 pitcher by most measures.
Also notice how two of the pitchers on the pre-season list, Ryan and Halladay, are on the DL, and Hernandez has also missed some time. Ryan is actually out for the year. That raises another point-pitchers are more injury prone. The motion necessary to pitch a baseball is unnatural in most cases and leads to many injuries, often serous, while swinging a bat puts much less pressure on the body. In fact, some experts ranked Chris Carpenter as one of the best pitchers entering 2007 and he is also finished for the year.
There are 30 teams, each using a five man pitching rotation as well as a closer. That's 180 players to choose from just to begin the season. With so many injuries and, with such a high variance in performance, the player pool of 180 expands rapidly even during the opening weeks of the season.
In contrast, each team uses only one catcher, one shortstop, etc. for the most part. Some teams platoon players, further reducing the number of players you want on your team. Player turnover is much lower, with fewer injuries and players losing their grip on the starting job. In short, you will have significantly more trouble finding a suitable replacement for a hitter, so you need to make it a priority to draft good ones at each position. With pitchers, you can pick up free agents and have some who were drafted lower come through as pleasant surprises.
In 2004. I took over a last place team in a league where you can keep your six best players. I then lost my best player, Vlad Guerrero, before the season started because he went to the American League. I traded away a couple good pitchers for draft picks and went crazy drafting batters. I finished with a league record 61-13 mark and crushed the opposition in the post-season.
In short, the one most important secret to know in fantasy baseball is to DRAFT HITTERS OVER PITCHERS. It gives you a tremendous advantage. Most people are unaware of this fact and you can use this knowledge to win more than your share of championships!
Tuesday, May 8, 2007
The Big Fly-Positional Scarcity
Chase Utley is the best player to target for the 2007 season. Shocking? Indeed, most experts would disagree with this statement, ranking players such as Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez higher, to throw out just a couple names. However, there are other players at their positions who are at least in the same ballpark as Sir Albert and ARod, but Utley rates head and shoulders above the rest of his class, especially in National League only leagues.
Experts are divided on the importance of positional scarcity. Simply put, it means that some positions are loaded with players of similar abilities, while others have a small group of players who clearly outshine the rest. When building a team, an advocate of the positional scarcity strategy will emphasize filling those positions early.
Roughly half of the fantasy baseball commentators I have read tailor their teams to this principle. When looking at the numbers, it makes perfect sense.
In a mixed 5X5 league, according to rotowire.com, Utley is valued at $32. The second best second baseman is Ian Kinsler, whose value is $9. That is a $23 difference! If you missed out on drafting Utley, Kinsler is the best alternative. Realistically, you might very well end up with an even lower valued player, making the difference that much greater.
In contast, Alex Rodriguez is another great player, with an identical value of $32. Third base is a much deeper position, though. The eighth best player, Scott Rolen, has a $10 value, a $22 difference. In other words, if you own the best second baseman, Utley, and the #8 third baseman, you have total value of $42, one dollar better than having the best third baseman and #2 second baseman.
Let's consider the ramifications. Say you're in a mixed league, non-auction draft with 12 teams. Both ARod and Utley will most likely be drafted in the first round, with ARod usually going first. Once they are both selected, each owner crosses their names off their cheatsheets. Now what happens? On most of those sheets, the #1 second and third baseman have a line drawn through them. 10 of the 12 owners still need a player at each position and the next name on their list stands out like a Ryan Howard blast. The proud owner of Utley smiles to himself, knowing he can wait a while before drafting a third baseman and instead concentrates on other high value players. Not so for the other 11 owners. That is the key: it provides you the freedom to draft an excellent player at each position while your competition is forced to play catch-up. In other words, you have flexibility. You can draft a third baseman in the second round if you wish and still be way ahead, or you can wait a while on third base and instead draft a stud outfielder in the second round and an excellent shortstop in the third round.
Using this strategy, you need to group players of similar value together at each position, usually by drawing a line on your draft sheet. For example, in my mixed league Yahoo draft, I had five players at third base valued between $26-$31. The sixth best player came in at $20. I didn't want to draft a third baseman immediately, but made sure to watch how many of those five were still available when my turn approached. If there were only one or two of them remaining, it was time to take the plunge. Often there is at least one position where the talent is becoming scarce as the draft progresses and, because of the flexibility you now have, you can jump on those players before it's too late.
One caveat to this approach: don't draft players too early. This is the tricky part. There may be one catcher left who is a few dollars better than the rest. At this point, you have to decide if he's likely to be drafted over the next round or two. If that's not the case, go ahead and fill a need at a different position and hope he's still available when your turn rolls around again. Experience and knowing your competition helps here, as well as your draft position. If you're participating in a snake draft where the order reverses after each round, you may not have to wait 12 pick before making another selection. Also, if most or all of the owners drafting after you have a catcher, you can feel a little more confident he will still be available later. Just like anything else, the more practice you have in drafting, the sharper your skills will become.
Following this principle will result in a team filled with excellent, high value players. If the value of your starting lineup is the highest in the league, especially on offense, that should translate to a playoff berth and hopefully a championship!
Good luck to everyone this week! If you are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, please email me at tim10966@gmail.com or view my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.
Experts are divided on the importance of positional scarcity. Simply put, it means that some positions are loaded with players of similar abilities, while others have a small group of players who clearly outshine the rest. When building a team, an advocate of the positional scarcity strategy will emphasize filling those positions early.
Roughly half of the fantasy baseball commentators I have read tailor their teams to this principle. When looking at the numbers, it makes perfect sense.
In a mixed 5X5 league, according to rotowire.com, Utley is valued at $32. The second best second baseman is Ian Kinsler, whose value is $9. That is a $23 difference! If you missed out on drafting Utley, Kinsler is the best alternative. Realistically, you might very well end up with an even lower valued player, making the difference that much greater.
In contast, Alex Rodriguez is another great player, with an identical value of $32. Third base is a much deeper position, though. The eighth best player, Scott Rolen, has a $10 value, a $22 difference. In other words, if you own the best second baseman, Utley, and the #8 third baseman, you have total value of $42, one dollar better than having the best third baseman and #2 second baseman.
Let's consider the ramifications. Say you're in a mixed league, non-auction draft with 12 teams. Both ARod and Utley will most likely be drafted in the first round, with ARod usually going first. Once they are both selected, each owner crosses their names off their cheatsheets. Now what happens? On most of those sheets, the #1 second and third baseman have a line drawn through them. 10 of the 12 owners still need a player at each position and the next name on their list stands out like a Ryan Howard blast. The proud owner of Utley smiles to himself, knowing he can wait a while before drafting a third baseman and instead concentrates on other high value players. Not so for the other 11 owners. That is the key: it provides you the freedom to draft an excellent player at each position while your competition is forced to play catch-up. In other words, you have flexibility. You can draft a third baseman in the second round if you wish and still be way ahead, or you can wait a while on third base and instead draft a stud outfielder in the second round and an excellent shortstop in the third round.
Using this strategy, you need to group players of similar value together at each position, usually by drawing a line on your draft sheet. For example, in my mixed league Yahoo draft, I had five players at third base valued between $26-$31. The sixth best player came in at $20. I didn't want to draft a third baseman immediately, but made sure to watch how many of those five were still available when my turn approached. If there were only one or two of them remaining, it was time to take the plunge. Often there is at least one position where the talent is becoming scarce as the draft progresses and, because of the flexibility you now have, you can jump on those players before it's too late.
One caveat to this approach: don't draft players too early. This is the tricky part. There may be one catcher left who is a few dollars better than the rest. At this point, you have to decide if he's likely to be drafted over the next round or two. If that's not the case, go ahead and fill a need at a different position and hope he's still available when your turn rolls around again. Experience and knowing your competition helps here, as well as your draft position. If you're participating in a snake draft where the order reverses after each round, you may not have to wait 12 pick before making another selection. Also, if most or all of the owners drafting after you have a catcher, you can feel a little more confident he will still be available later. Just like anything else, the more practice you have in drafting, the sharper your skills will become.
Following this principle will result in a team filled with excellent, high value players. If the value of your starting lineup is the highest in the league, especially on offense, that should translate to a playoff berth and hopefully a championship!
Good luck to everyone this week! If you are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, please email me at tim10966@gmail.com or view my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
Fantasy Baseball League Structure
Welcome to the inaugural article of my new fantasy baseball blog. You are one of the first people to read my column. Just imagine what an edge you'll have over your competition!
This is the first in a continuing series of weekly articles. I'm bursting with ideas for future articles (feel free to email me with your ideas too). Leading off the first inning is one of the most important topics: league structure. Simply put, all leagues are not created equally.
For example, I am playing in five leagues this season, three on yahoo and two on cbssportsline. One of the yahoo leagues is a full keeper league, or dynasty format. We conducted our initial draft last season and filled out our rosters. Prior to the start of the 2007 season. each owner announced which players he was releasing. If you dropped three players, that is how many you were drafting. Because it's a keeper format, the players drafted this year were mostly young, highly talented players such as Brandon Wood and Elijah Dukes who have tremendous long-term potential.
The other two yahoo leagues are start from scratch, one year only leagues. Many of the most coveted players drafted right off the bat in the other league were chosen much lower here, in some cases going completely undrafted. The players are the same, of course. It's just the structure that alters their value. It's therefore important to note that when seeking out advice, an owner has to be careful in determining how applicable it is to their own format. One size does not fit all, so be sure to exercise your own good judgment as a filter.
To further complicate matters, both of my CBS leagues are set up where you can retain up to six players from the previous season, plus two rookies. If an owner feels he is out of the race, he may trade four or five good players for one superstar. In most leagues, such a deal would make no sense, but here it can help both owners.
My CBS leagues feature point-based, head-to-head matchups on a weekly basis. We actually play three teams simultaneously. By the end of the week, if you outscored all three of your opponents, you are awarded three victories. If you beat two of the teams, you go 2-1, and so on. Under this point system, a player stealing a base scores two points, while you lose one if your player is caught stealing.
On the other hand, in two of the yahoo leagues, we compare categories instead of scoring points. For example, on offense we use average, on base percentage, home runs, rbi's, runs, and stolen bases. We play only one opponent per week and compare the team totals in each category at the end of the week, so if you scored 50 runs and your rival scored 49, then you earned a victory.
In this case, the importance of stolen bases is magnified. In fact, many hitters can slug 15-20 home runs or more, but not as many can swipe 20 bases. A player like Corey Patterson might hit .265 and score 75 runs. Not bad, although not really what you might want from an outfielder. However, if he steals 45-50 bases, he can lead your team to many victories in that category. If he is caught 20 times, no problem-there is no penalty for being gunned down at second base. Again, due to the league structure, he goes from being a pretty good player to one with significant value.
In addition to the above, other league differences influencing an owner's strategy include:
This is the first in a continuing series of weekly articles. I'm bursting with ideas for future articles (feel free to email me with your ideas too). Leading off the first inning is one of the most important topics: league structure. Simply put, all leagues are not created equally.
For example, I am playing in five leagues this season, three on yahoo and two on cbssportsline. One of the yahoo leagues is a full keeper league, or dynasty format. We conducted our initial draft last season and filled out our rosters. Prior to the start of the 2007 season. each owner announced which players he was releasing. If you dropped three players, that is how many you were drafting. Because it's a keeper format, the players drafted this year were mostly young, highly talented players such as Brandon Wood and Elijah Dukes who have tremendous long-term potential.
The other two yahoo leagues are start from scratch, one year only leagues. Many of the most coveted players drafted right off the bat in the other league were chosen much lower here, in some cases going completely undrafted. The players are the same, of course. It's just the structure that alters their value. It's therefore important to note that when seeking out advice, an owner has to be careful in determining how applicable it is to their own format. One size does not fit all, so be sure to exercise your own good judgment as a filter.
To further complicate matters, both of my CBS leagues are set up where you can retain up to six players from the previous season, plus two rookies. If an owner feels he is out of the race, he may trade four or five good players for one superstar. In most leagues, such a deal would make no sense, but here it can help both owners.
My CBS leagues feature point-based, head-to-head matchups on a weekly basis. We actually play three teams simultaneously. By the end of the week, if you outscored all three of your opponents, you are awarded three victories. If you beat two of the teams, you go 2-1, and so on. Under this point system, a player stealing a base scores two points, while you lose one if your player is caught stealing.
On the other hand, in two of the yahoo leagues, we compare categories instead of scoring points. For example, on offense we use average, on base percentage, home runs, rbi's, runs, and stolen bases. We play only one opponent per week and compare the team totals in each category at the end of the week, so if you scored 50 runs and your rival scored 49, then you earned a victory.
In this case, the importance of stolen bases is magnified. In fact, many hitters can slug 15-20 home runs or more, but not as many can swipe 20 bases. A player like Corey Patterson might hit .265 and score 75 runs. Not bad, although not really what you might want from an outfielder. However, if he steals 45-50 bases, he can lead your team to many victories in that category. If he is caught 20 times, no problem-there is no penalty for being gunned down at second base. Again, due to the league structure, he goes from being a pretty good player to one with significant value.
In addition to the above, other league differences influencing an owner's strategy include:
- Starting Lineup Size-do you have to start one or two catchers? Three, four, or even five outfielders? How many pitchers vs. batters?
- Lineup Frequency-do you submit daily or weekly lineups?
- Roster Size-do you have plenty of room on your bench to stash away players with potential?
- Disabled List-are you allowed to shift players to the DL and free up roster space, perhaps for a player like Pedro Martinez who should help you later?
- Playoff Format-is it winner take all or do six of the ten teams qualify for the playoffs?
- Scoring Categories-very important. A couple of my leagues count double plays turned by infielders, for example, making second basemen and shortstops much more valuable.
- Type of Draft-is it an auction, a live draft, or fully automated?
- Minimum Qualifications-do your statistics not count if you fail to reach a team minimum of at bats or innings pitched?
- Player Pool-is it AL or NL only or mixed?
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