The Big Fly-Positional Scarcity

Chase Utley is the best player to target for the 2007 season. Shocking? Indeed, most experts would disagree with this statement, ranking players such as Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez higher, to throw out just a couple names. However, there are other players at their positions who are at least in the same ballpark as Sir Albert and ARod, but Utley rates head and shoulders above the rest of his class, especially in National League only leagues.

Experts are divided on the importance of positional scarcity. Simply put, it means that some positions are loaded with players of similar abilities, while others have a small group of players who clearly outshine the rest. When building a team, an advocate of the positional scarcity strategy will emphasize filling those positions early.

Roughly half of the fantasy baseball commentators I have read tailor their teams to this principle. When looking at the numbers, it makes perfect sense.

In a mixed 5X5 league, according to rotowire.com, Utley is valued at $32. The second best second baseman is Ian Kinsler, whose value is $9. That is a $23 difference! If you missed out on drafting Utley, Kinsler is the best alternative. Realistically, you might very well end up with an even lower valued player, making the difference that much greater.

In contast, Alex Rodriguez is another great player, with an identical value of $32. Third base is a much deeper position, though. The eighth best player, Scott Rolen, has a $10 value, a $22 difference. In other words, if you own the best second baseman, Utley, and the #8 third baseman, you have total value of $42, one dollar better than having the best third baseman and #2 second baseman.

Let's consider the ramifications. Say you're in a mixed league, non-auction draft with 12 teams. Both ARod and Utley will most likely be drafted in the first round, with ARod usually going first. Once they are both selected, each owner crosses their names off their cheatsheets. Now what happens? On most of those sheets, the #1 second and third baseman have a line drawn through them. 10 of the 12 owners still need a player at each position and the next name on their list stands out like a Ryan Howard blast. The proud owner of Utley smiles to himself, knowing he can wait a while before drafting a third baseman and instead concentrates on other high value players. Not so for the other 11 owners. That is the key: it provides you the freedom to draft an excellent player at each position while your competition is forced to play catch-up. In other words, you have flexibility. You can draft a third baseman in the second round if you wish and still be way ahead, or you can wait a while on third base and instead draft a stud outfielder in the second round and an excellent shortstop in the third round.

Using this strategy, you need to group players of similar value together at each position, usually by drawing a line on your draft sheet. For example, in my mixed league Yahoo draft, I had five players at third base valued between $26-$31. The sixth best player came in at $20. I didn't want to draft a third baseman immediately, but made sure to watch how many of those five were still available when my turn approached. If there were only one or two of them remaining, it was time to take the plunge. Often there is at least one position where the talent is becoming scarce as the draft progresses and, because of the flexibility you now have, you can jump on those players before it's too late.

One caveat to this approach: don't draft players too early. This is the tricky part. There may be one catcher left who is a few dollars better than the rest. At this point, you have to decide if he's likely to be drafted over the next round or two. If that's not the case, go ahead and fill a need at a different position and hope he's still available when your turn rolls around again. Experience and knowing your competition helps here, as well as your draft position. If you're participating in a snake draft where the order reverses after each round, you may not have to wait 12 pick before making another selection. Also, if most or all of the owners drafting after you have a catcher, you can feel a little more confident he will still be available later. Just like anything else, the more practice you have in drafting, the sharper your skills will become.

Following this principle will result in a team filled with excellent, high value players. If the value of your starting lineup is the highest in the league, especially on offense, that should translate to a playoff berth and hopefully a championship!

Good luck to everyone this week! If you are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, please email me at tim10966@gmail.com or view my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.