The Big Fly-Free Agents

Draft day is the single most important event of the season for your team. No matter how skilled a drafter you are, however, the key to success over the long haul is managing your team well. Specifically, this means using the free agent pool to your advantage. Indeed, winning a championship based on a good draft alone is as rare as a pitcher hitting a home run. Yes, it does happen, but the general rule of thumb is: the more competitive a league, the harder it is to win without skillfully running your team during the ups and downs of the season.

A simplification technique I have always used is viewing every player as having a particular value, like a stock. Just like a stock, a multitude of variables can influence a player's value, such as past performance, how his manager will likely use him, his health, etc. For example, J.J. Hardy of the Brewers was a pretty good prospect when he entered the majors a few years ago, but he has struggled somewhat, compounded by a propensity to miss large chunks of time with injuries. His value was low enough entering the 2007 season where he went undrafted in many leagues.

As of this writing, he is leading the National League in home runs, thanks to good health (knock on wood), more experience, and batting in a Brewer offense that's more potent than it has been in years, perhaps since the days of Harvey's Wallbangers. Any home run leader has tremendous value, but a shortstop?! Needless to say, his value has skyrocketed.

If Hardy was available in your league's free agent pool, he is surely long gone by now. Essentially, his value increased enough for the lucky owner who picked him up when his value exceeded someone elses on his team. That's the way I look at it. I don't normally assign a numerical value beyond draft day. Rather, I have a rough idea of how much each player is worth. Games are played daily, injuries occur, players are called up or sent down to the minors, become starters or vice versa, etc. In other words, just like the stock market, baseball is dynamic, with values changing every single day of the season. To reach the top, you have to stay on top of the news and be aware of who is available.

So what is the best way to sort through the multitude of available players? No matter how skilled a player is, if he doesn't play regularly, it's next to impossible to help your team, unless you think he's so good he won't be overlooked all season and you have room on your roster to stash him away. Otherwise, the best players to target are those whose playing time is on the upswing, mainly players who just earned a chance to start. When that happens, I then examine his historical performance, including the minor leagues. There are many players who have excelled in the minors but haven't had much of an opportunity to play in the big leagues. Just recently, Jack Cust of the A's was given a shot to start in the outfield. He has terrorized minor league pitchers for years but really hasn't had much of a trial in the big show. Now he's looking like the real deal, blasting a homer seemingly every other game.

Those types of players can have huge payoffs if you jump early. They don't all work out, of course. Sometimes they slump, the window closes fast, and their value drops. Over a long season, though, you will hit paydirt sometimes, and it's a great feeling. It's surprising how many players have big time ability and don't really have a chance to display their skills. Some players languish in utility roles for years before really having the chance to shine.

Pitchers are more of a crapshoot, but here's a secret: pay close attention to their K/IP ratio, especially for starters. If it's not at least 2/3, they will rarely achieve long-term success unless their name is Jimmy Key. Even if a pitcher has struggled somewhat, if he has high strikeout rates and is starting, I will invariable take a chance on him. Even better, many leagues count strikeouts or strikeout ratio as a category, so you have a leg up to begin with. In general, history has shown that strikeout pitchers excel far more than their soft-tossing counterparts, so don't hesitate to jump on the bandwagon.

Lastly, assuming saves are important in your league, pay close attention to each team's closer situation. In particular, if a team's ace reliever is struggling, usually there is another guy on the team throwing well and, with one more blown save by the closer, might find himself in that role before too long. If you have room on your roster for closers in waiting, you have a real good chance of a huge payoff.

Two or three major pickups can be enough for an average team to make the playoffs. Once you make the post-season, anything can happen, so stay on top of the news and you will reap the rewards!

Good luck this week. If you have any comments or are interested in a thorough, low-cost analysis of your team, feel free to email me at tim10966@gmail.com for details. Also, please see my ebay listing under fantasy baseball.